Insurance Tactics
Insurance is a type of wager when the dealer get A. Players can raise bet at most half of their original betting for insurance, to bet whether the dealer would get Blackjack. If the dealer gets Blackjack, double insurance betting amount would be awarded to the player. If not, the gambler will lose their insurance. The insurance betting is actually invented by the casinos in Macau, and then popular in Las Vegas , Atlantic City
Without card counting, only based on the basic strategy the players should never bet for insurance. This is not the painful experience of many gamblers, but also there is a strong support in mathematics. From the empirical study: it seems good for the players from the surface, and provides more choices for players to bet, but in fact this is another kind of method to make profits for casinos. Why is betting the insurance not a wise decision? Let numbers to explain the questions. When the dealer's card is A, players bet 1 unit for the insurance (for convenience, not considering the players initial bet size), the chance for dealers to get a card at the value of 10 is 4 / 13, because there are 13 type of cards per deck, and only 4 species (10, K, Q, J) can represent 10; and the probability of card which is not value of 10 is 9/13. In other words, players only have 4 / 13 of chance to obtain Black jack, and 9 / 13 is not in charge. Therefore,
Expected value for betting insurance: E (ξyes) = 2 × 4/13-1 × 9 / 13 =- 1 / 13 =- 7.69%
Expected value when the player not bet fro Insurance: E = (ξno) = 0
It can be seen, on average and from long term, not betting for the insurance t is a wise decision, since the player has -7.69% of advantage when betting for Insurance, which is worse than the expected value of 0 when the insurance betting is not considered.
As for card counters, insurance can be only considered when the true count is not less than +3. However, many players with card counting skill, still feel confused on buying insurance, and bet for insurance based on the cards on hand. When the players’ cards are valued at 20, they bet for the insurance despite that the true count is still below+3 at that moment. They think that the spent money for insurance will ensure them to certainly win with 20 in hand and at least they could get half back whenever the dealer gets blackjack. More, if the value of the cards the players have in hand is 13 to 16, they refuse to buy insurance, because they think they would finally lose even if the dealer is not BJ, and it is better to save the insurance bet. As a matter of fact, this is a wrong concept, as the "insurance" term, is easy to make ones to reckon to buy insurance for the cards they hold. In fact, there is nothing to do with the cards you have already been dealt when betting for insurance. When the true count is + 3 or more, the probability for dealers to get blackjack is greater than 1 / 3, so betting the insurance at this point has a positive win rate. That is, insurance is only betting on whether the dealer gets BJ, not being affected by the cards in hand.
In short, you never bet for insurance if you only use the basic strategy, and if you are a card counter, the true count of + 3 is key indication for you to decide if buy insurance, because only when the index is greater than +3, can you gain the advantage to beat the dealer, in which case it makes sense to bet for insurance.
Posts
Thanks for sharing the post.. parents are worlds best person in each lives of individual..they need or must succeed to sustain needs of the family. online auto insurance quotes
I love this blog!! The flash up the top is awesome!! insurance