Crazy to split 10s?
Generally speaking, 10s are the most frequently occurring pairs in blackjack game with the receiving probability of 9.40%, and it’s 2.85% against a dealer’s 10, while against any other rank it’s 0.73 percent individually and 6.56 percent together. Such frequent emergence of 10s arise a concern that whether blackjack players should be splitting a pair of 10s, especially when the dealer has a 5 or 6 up. Some may say: Why not? To split the 10s as to make more money on the table when the dealer has easily busting card like the 5 or 6 up. It sounds profitable and reasonable.
If you split a pair of 10s against the dealer 6, you are going to win 64% of the times and lose only 36% with the net gain at 28%. You are overwhelmingly the favorite and stand to win money when you split. In fact, for every $100 you bet on the 10s, you’ll wind up with a $56 profit on average (twice of 28%). There is not big difference against a dealer’s 5, where you’ll also expect to be ahead by 26% when you split the 10s.
If you stand on the 10s pair, you have a 20. That’s a pretty good standing hand. You’ll win about 85% of the time when you stand on 20 against the dealer’s 6, which is roughly a 20% increase over splitting. This means when you stand on you 10s, against the dealers 6, you can expect to win roughly $70 per $100 wagered. Similar potential profit can be made against a dealer’s 5. However, when you split 10s, you are not guaranteed to catch two 20s, and often the split hands will be less than 20 in total.
As a matter of fact, only the ploppy and card counter would split the 10s. The above explanation tells that you will make more money by standing with 20 even though you could still get profits from splitting 10s against a dealer 5 and 6. Therefore, it is suggested that if you are a basic strategy player, you should never split 10s no matter what the dealer shows.
Nevertheless, this situation is changed when you are a card counter. It is supposed to split 10s sometimes against the dealer 5 or 6, but only when the remaining pack of cards is loaded with 10s, which card counters would know by tracking the high and low cards. In this regard, you are creating two hands and with an abundance of high cards out are likely to draw at least one good hand, so if the dealer doesn't break as desired, you most likely push. That is because when the deck is rich in 10, the card counter has a good chance of drawing 10s for two pat 20 hands or even 21 fortunately. In addition, the dealer’s chance of busting increases when the deck is loaded with 10s and she has to draw. As illustrated in the Illustrious 18, splitting on 10 against dealer’s 5 and 6 is allowed when the true count is larger than plus5 and plus 4 respectively. Therefore, the odds are in the card counter’s favor to make more money splitting 10s when the deck is 10-rich.
So, when you see a player splitting 10s next time, don’t think of him as a crazy man, because the skilled card counter could do this at sometimes. To highlight, if you are not counting cards, please be strict to follow what the basic strategy says: never split 10s.
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